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Ohio: how the redistricting proposal would work

A diary on RedState.org reports: For background: the current breakdown is 12 Republicans and 6 Democrats, a 2:1 ratio that is striking because Bush defeated Kerry in Ohio by only a few percentage points. There may be a number of reasons for this: poor Democratic performance in campaigns, poor Democratic candidates...but the one the mostly Democratic reformers chose to focus on was the gerrymandering of Ohio's districts. Taking the very rough standard of a margin of victory in 2000 (no data for 2004) of 10 points or more as uncompetitive, I found 7 uncompetitive R districts, 4 uncompetitive D districts, 6 competitive lean R districts, and 1 competitive lean D district. Each of those falls along party lines except District 6, represented by Ted Strickland (D).

Such a plan would not be adopted according to the rules set out in the amendment, and a new plan would almost certainly favor Democrats. Here's why.

The amendment has a "competitiveness" requirement that has the committee assign a score to each plan, based on the following formula: # of competitive districts leaning one way balanced by competitive districts leaning the other way x 2 + # of remaining competitive districts, minus # of uncompetitive districts for one side NOT balanced by an uncompetitive district for the other side x 2. Using the numbers above (again, very rough), the current map would earn a score of 3. That won't cut it, since the committee is required to consider plans with the highest score first. I put together a really rough plan without regard to benefitting Democrats or Republicans, and my plan got a 7. So I feel confident that somebody who does have all the data and expertise could make one with an even higher score. -- || RedState.org