52-48 win for Democratic presidential candidate predicted
Jack Balkin writes on Balkinization: Yale economics professor Ray Fair has been predicting Presidential elections with only a handful of variables since the 1970's. He argues that economic news (in particular, a combination of inflation and growth) is the primary determinant of electoral success in Presidential elections. His simple formula, updated to the present, suggests that the Republicans are in for trouble. The model currently predicts a 52-48 victory for the Democrats, and with even greater margins if the economy continues to struggle. -- Balkinization
Comment: I am always fascinated by these predictions because they seem to say that, no matter how many bumper stickers, yard signs, and telephone banks we have, a unseen hand writes the election results for us.